应用最小二乘法建立钾长石释光测年标准生长曲线     

杨宏宇  赵晖  王兴繁 《中国沙漠》2019,39(1):97-104

标准生长曲线（Standardised Growth Curve，SGC）法的提出为高效快速地测定释光样品的等效剂量（D_e）值提供了可能。不同实验室的放射源剂量率、操作流程、仪器误差等的不同会导致SGC参数的不同。运用最小二乘法标准化实验剂量校正后的信号L_ri/T_ri*D_e得到一条本实验室的标准生长曲线，用来快速得到等效剂量值。通过R软件实现了最小二乘法标准化过程，建立了50、100、150、200、250℃激发温度下的钾长石的标准生长曲线，分析发现250℃下的SGC收敛性最好，由于此温度下的信号衰退率可忽略不计，因此，我们用250℃激发温度下的SGC方程来估计样品的等效剂量。比较250℃ SGC D_e和250℃ MET-pIRIR D_e的一致性，发现在0~500 Gy范围内用SGC法估计的D_e和MET-pIRIR法估计的D_e非常接近，表明了此范围内SGC法的可靠性，而在>600 Gy范围内出现较大差别。一方面，此范围内用于拟合SGC的数据点较少导致高剂量区域内拟合的方程参数不够准确；另一方面，600 Gy与SGC对应的饱和剂量水平值844.5 Gy已经接近，所以在>600 Gy区域测出的D_e很可能出现较大偏差。因此需在今后工作中逐步积累更多样品，完善SGC参数，使其也能胜任较老年龄样品。  相似文献   

Mediating stream baseflow response to climate change: The role of basin storage          下载免费PDF全文

James M. Buttle 《水文研究》2018,32(3):363-378

Inter‐basin differences in streamflow response to changes in regional hydroclimatology may reflect variations in storage characteristics that control the retention and release of water inputs. These aspects of storage could mediate a basin's sensitivity to climate change. The hypothesis that temporal trends in stream baseflow exhibit a more muted reaction to changes in precipitation and evapotranspiration for basins with greater storage was tested on the Oak Ridges Moraine (ORM) in Southern Ontario, Canada. Long‐term (>25 years) baseflow trends for 16 basins were compared to corresponding trends in precipitation amount and type and in potential evapotranspiration as well as shorter trends in groundwater levels for monitoring wells on the ORM. Inter‐basin differences in storage properties were characterized using physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, and streamflow metrics. The latter included the slope of the basin's flow duration curve and basin dynamic storage. Most basins showed temporal increases in baseflow, consistent with limited evidence of increases and decreases in regional precipitation and snowfall: precipitation ratio, respectively, and recent increases in groundwater recharge along the crest of the ORM. Baseflow trend magnitude was uncorrelated to basin physiographic, hydrogeologic, land use/land cover, or flow duration curve characteristics. However, it was positively related to a basin's dynamic storage, particularly for basins with limited coverage of open water and wetlands. The dynamic storage approach assumes that a basin behaves as a first‐order dynamical system, and extensive open water and wetland areas in a basin may invalidate this assumption. Previous work suggested that smaller dynamic storage was linked to greater damping of temporal variations in water inputs and reduced interannual variability in streamflow regime. Storage and release of water inputs to a basin may assist in mediating baseflow response to temporal changes in regional hydroclimatology and may partly account for inter‐basin differences in that response. Such storage characteristics should be considered when forecasting the impacts of climate change on regional streamflow.  相似文献   

A method for uncertainty constraint of catchment discharge and phosphorus load estimates          下载免费PDF全文

Michael J. Hollaway  Keith J. Beven  Clare Mc W. H. Benskin  Adrian L. Collins  Robert Evans  Peter D. Falloon  Kirsty J. Forber  Kevin M. Hiscock  Ron Kahana  Christopher J. A. Macleod  Mary C. Ockenden  Martha L. Villamizar  Catherine Wearing  Paul J. A. Withers  Jian G. Zhou  Nicholas J. Barber  Philip M. Haygarth 《水文研究》2018,32(17):2779-2787

River discharge and nutrient measurements are subject to aleatory and epistemic uncertainties. In this study, we present a novel method for estimating these uncertainties in colocated discharge and phosphorus (P) measurements. The “voting point”‐based method constrains the derived stage‐discharge rating curve both on the fit to available gaugings and to the catchment water balance. This helps reduce the uncertainty beyond the range of available gaugings and during out of bank situations. In the example presented here, for the top 5% of flows, uncertainties are shown to be 139% using a traditional power law fit, compared with 40% when using our updated “voting point” method. Furthermore, the method is extended to in situ and lab analysed nutrient concentration data pairings, with lower uncertainties (81%) shown for high concentrations (top 5%) than when a traditional regression is applied (102%). Overall, for both discharge and nutrient data, the method presented goes some way to accounting for epistemic uncertainties associated with nonstationary physical characteristics of the monitoring site.  相似文献   

Estimating the sediment trap efficiency of intermittently dry reservoirs: lessons from the Kruger National Park,South Africa          下载免费PDF全文

Bastian Reinwarth  Edward S. Riddell  Christoph Glotzbach  Jussi Baade 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2018,43(2):463-481

The assessment of sediment yield from reservoir siltation requires knowledge of the reservoir's sediment trap efficiency (TE). Widely used approaches for the estimation of the long‐term mean TE rely on the ratio of the reservoir's storage capacity (C) to its catchment size (A) or mean annual inflow (I). These approaches have been developed from a limited number of reservoirs (N ≤ 40), most of them located in temperate climate regions. Their general applicability to reservoirs receiving highly variable runoff such as in semi‐arid areas has been questioned. Here, we examine the effect of ephemeral inflow on the TE of 10 small (≤ 280 × 10³ m³), intermittently dry reservoirs located in the Kruger National Park. Fieldwork was conducted to determine the storage capacity of the reservoir basins. The frequency and magnitude of spillage events was simulated with the daily time step Pitman rainfall–runoff model. Different runoff scenarios were established to cope with uncertainties arising from the lack of runoff records and imperfect input data. Scenarios for the relationship between water and sediment discharge were created based on sediment rating curves. Taking into account uncertainties in hydrological modelling, uncertainties of mean TE estimates, calculated from all scenarios (N = 9), are moderate, ranging from ±6 to ±11% at the 95% confidence level. By comparison, estimating TE from the storage capacity to catchment area (C/A) ratio induces high uncertainty (ranges of 35 to 65%), but this uncertainty can be confined (15 to 33%) when the latter approach is combined with hydrological modelling. Established methods relying on the storage capacity to mean annual inflow (C/I) ratio most probably lead to an overestimation of the TE for the investigated reservoirs. The approach presented here may be used instead to estimate the TE of small, intermittently dry reservoirs in semi‐arid climate regions. Copyright © 2017 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Adjustment of self-formed bankfull channel geometry of meandering rivers: modelling study     

Kensuke Naito  Gary Parker 《地球表面变化过程与地形》2020,45(13):3313-3322

We consider the evolution of the hydraulic geometry of sand-bed meandering rivers. We study the difference between the timescale of longitudinal river profile adjustment and that of channel width and depth adjustment. We also study the effect of hydrological regime alteration on the evolution of bankfull channel geometry. To achieve this, a previously developed model for the spatiotemporal co-evolution of bankfull channel characteristics, including bankfull discharge, bankfull width, bankfull depth and down-channel bed slope, is used. In our modelling framework, flow variability is considered in terms of a specified flow duration curve. Taking advantage of this unique feature, we identify the flow range responsible for long-term bankfull channel change within the specified flow duration curve. That is, the relative importance of extremely high short-duration flows compared to moderately high longer duration flows is examined. The Minnesota River, MN, USA, an actively meandering sand-bed stream, is selected for a case study. The longitudinal profile of the study reach has been in adjustment toward equilibrium since the end of the last glaciation, while its bankfull cross-section is rapidly widening due to hydrological regime change in the last several decades. We use the model to demonstrate that the timescale for longitudinal channel profile adjustment is much greater than the timescale for cross-sectional profile adjustment due to a lateral channel shift. We also show that hydrological regime shift is responsible for the recent rapid widening of the Minnesota River. Our analysis suggests that increases in the 5–25% exceedance flows play a more significant role in recent bankfull channel enlargement of the Minnesota River than increase in either the 0.1% exceedance flow or the 90% exceedance flow. © 2020 John Wiley & Sons, Ltd.  相似文献   

Investigation of gas content of organic-rich shale:A case study from Lower Permian shale in southern North China Basin,central China     

Wei Dang  Jin-Chuan Zhang  Xuan Tang  Xiao-Liang Wei  Zhong-Ming Li  Cheng-Hu Wang  Qian Chen  Chong Liu 《地学前缘(英文版)》2018,9(2):559-575

Measuring gas content is an essential step in estimating the commerciality of gas reserves. In this study,eight shale core samples from the Mouye-1 well were measured using a homemade patented gas desorption apparatus to determine their gas contents. Due to the air contamination that is introduced into the desorption canister, a mathematical method was devised to correct the gas quantity and quality.Compared to the chemical compositions of desorbed gas, the chemical compositions of residual gas are somewhat different. In residual gas, carbon dioxide and nitrogen record a slight increase, and propane is first observed. This phenomenon may be related to the exposure time during the transportation of shale samples from the drilling site to the laboratory, as well as the differences in the mass, size and adsorptivity of different gas molecules. In addition to a series of conventional methods, including the USBM direct method and the Amoco Curve Fit(ACF) method, which were used here for lost gas content estimation, a Modified Curve Fit(MCF) method, based on the 'bidisperse' diffusion model, was established to estimate lost gas content. By fitting the ACF and MCF models to gas desorption data, we determined that the MCF method could reasonably describe the gas desorption data over the entire time period, whereas the ACF method failed. The failure of the ACF method to describe the gas desorption process may be related to its restrictive assumption of a single pore size within shale samples. In comparison to the indirect method, this study demonstrates that none of the three methods studied in this investigation(USBM, ACF and MCF) could individually estimate the lost gas contents of all shale samples and that the proportion of free gas relative to total gas has a significant effect on the estimation accuracy of the selected method. When the ratio of free gas to total gas is lower than 45%, the USBM method is the best for estimating the lost gas content, whereas when the ratio ranges from 45% to 75% or is more than 75%, the ACF and MCF methods, are the best options respectively.  相似文献   

RS & GIS-based landslide susceptibility mapping of the Balason River basin,Darjeeling Himalaya,using logistic regression (LR) model     

Subrata Mondal  Sujit Mandal 《Georisk: Assessment and Management of Risk for Engineered Systems and Geohazards》2018,12(1):29-44

The present study deals with the preparation of a landslide susceptibility map of the Balason River basin, Darjeeling Himalaya, using a logistic regression model based on Geographic Information System and Remote Sensing. The landslide inventory map was prepared with a total of 295 landslide locations extracted from various satellite images and intensive field survey. Topographical maps, satellite images, geological, geomorphological, soil, rainfall and seismic data were collected, processed and constructed into a spatial database in a GIS environment. The chosen landslide-conditioning factors were altitude, slope aspect, slope angle, slope curvature, geology, geomorphology, soil, land use/land cover, normalised differential vegetation index, drainage density, lineament number density, distance from lineament, distance to drainage, stream power index, topographic wetted index, rainfall and peak ground acceleration. The produced landslide susceptibility map satisfied the decision rules and ?2 Log likelihood, Cox &; Snell R-Square and Nagelkerke R-Square values proved that all the independent variables were statistically significant. The receiver operating characteristic curve showed that the prediction accuracy of the landslide probability map was 96.10%. The proposed LR method can be used in other hazard/disaster studies and decision-making.  相似文献   

围压和孔隙结构对不同粒级砂岩孔隙度渗透率的影响实验研究     

张丽华  潘保芝  单刚义 《地质与资源》2018,27(3):288-292

孔隙度和渗透率是储层评价的两个重要参数.岩石毛管压力曲线和核磁共振T2谱图是描述储层微观结构特征的重要参数.通过测量不同压力条件下岩心样品的孔隙度和渗透率,得到了孔隙度和渗透率随压力的变化情况.实验结果表明：孔隙度和渗透率随着压力的增加而降低,并且与压力服从对数函数变化规律.不同孔隙度渗透率区间的砂岩样品,孔隙度和渗透率随着压力变化的趋势不同.通过测量不同粒级砂岩样品的毛管压力曲线和核磁共振T2谱图,证实了孔隙结构对孔隙度和渗透率的影响,微观孔隙结构是决定渗透性好坏的关键因素.  相似文献   

西辽河流域归一化植被指数与气象因子相关性分析     

田宝星  刘丹  宫丽娟  赵放  季生太  赵慧颖  于成龙 《气象与环境学报》2021,37(3):88-93

为了解西辽河流域归一化植被指数(NDVI)的分布规律、变化趋势及对气候变化的响应,利用2000—2018年西辽河流域11个气象站逐日气象资料和MODIS归一化植被指数数据集,通过线性回归和相关分析,探讨了生长季各月NDVI与气象因子的时滞性,以及气象站周围10 km缓冲区内不同植被类型NDVI与气象因子的相关性。结果表明：西辽河流域年平均气温、最高气温、最低气温和降水量均呈上升趋势。NDVI呈上升趋势,植被有所改善,不同植被类型NDVI均呈增加趋势,耕地增加趋势最快,耕地长势受益于农事活动的完善和增进。NDVI空间分布呈现中间低,四周高特点。生长季各月NDVI与降水量存在明显的滞后性,滞后期为1个月;仅8月NDVI与前1个月平均气温和最高气温存在滞后性。不同植被类型NDVI与平均气温、最高气温的相关性密切。耕地NDVI与气象因子的相关性较好。研究结果可为维护西辽河流域生态系统平衡提供参考。  相似文献   

Inverse modeling of lichen growth curves and implications for lichenometric dating     

《Quaternary Geochronology》2022

Lichenometric dating represents a quick and affordable surface exposure dating method that has been widely used to provide a minimum age constraint on tectonic and geomorphic landscape changes as well as buildings and anthropogenic landscape changes in various settings during the late Holocene. Despite its widespread usage, this method has several limitations. Major problems relate to the sampling of lichen population on any given rock surface and the modeling of growth curves. In order to overcome these issues, it has been suggested to subdivide the rock surface into some areas and measure the largest lichen thallus on each one. However, how to express the data in terms of a probability distribution function and link it to an age of last exposure of the rock surface are still a matter of debate. Here, we propose a novel approach to the modeling of lichen growth curves by treating lichen growth as a continuous-time Markov process with a time-varying rate and additive Brownian noise. Given the growth rates, the probability distribution of the lichen population at any time can then be obtained by solving the Fokker–Planck equation. This method is illustrated using a dataset from the Huashan area of eastern China, which consists of measurements of the largest thalli on 12 rock surfaces of known age. We first build up the probability distribution of the lichen population for each rock surface based on extreme value theory and then use these to optimize the growth curve by minimizing the Jensen–Shannon divergence. A new method is also proposed to use the growth curve to map a sample of size data from an undated rock surface to the calendar age domain so as to yield a fully probabilistic estimate of the exposure age of the undated rock surface rather than a point estimate.  相似文献